July 2020
« Mar    

Recent Posts

Australia: Defying the Precipice

It has been eight months since the blog post, Australia: On the Precipice time enough for an update. At the time of writing that article I was making a prediction that money supply growth would reach negative territory by mid year, based on trends emerging last last year. This has not eventuated, as you can see by [...]

Net Foreign Debt Wagging the Money Supply Dog

Source: RBA Statistics

The graph above fairly clearly indicates that Net Foreign Debt (NFD) is a leading indicator for changes in M3 money supply. It looks like there is around a six month lag (give or take) between NFD moving and then M3 following suit.

The majority of foreign debt generated by Australia is not a result [...]

Deflation Case Study: Latvia

This case study really should have been one of the first covered because the deflation dynamics at play in Latvia have been more pronounced than just about any other country in the world. This case study will confirm many of the patterns we have seen in previous case studies. Namely a fall in the value [...]

Real Inflation and Real Deflation

One of the more annoying aspects of economics is the importance placed on the CPI figures and how infuencial they are not only on the economics profession, but on life in general. So many aspects of our lives are effected by this number, HECS debts, pensions and any number of other parts of our lives [...]

Australia: On the Precipice

The popular opinion if one is to believe the mainstream media and various talking heads is that Australia has missed the worst of the GFC and the future looks bright as Australia gravitates back towards ‘normal’ growth levels. The unseen opinion is that Australia is on the precipice of a debt deflation period, which will [...]